[Gort]

This is all moot anyway, since several vendors currently offer free shipping on orders totaling more than $100. But I’d like to bend your ear all the same, so here’s my question ...

How many of you would quit diecast collecting utterly if shipping charges (fees) doubled? Tripled? Quadrupled? How high would shipping have to go before you waved your fists in the air and screamed, “SCREW IT!!! I’M NOT TAKING THIS ANY MORE!!!!!!!!!!

Here’s why I ask ...

Opec’s president yesterday warned oil prices will hit $200 a barrel, and there’s little the cartel can (or will) do about it.

According to Breitbart.com, a top-drawer on-line economic/business/finance journal, a barrel of oil will soar to $225 in two years. Analyst Jeff Rubin agrees: "Despite the recent record jump in oil prices, oil prices will continue to rise steadily over the next five years, almost doubling from current levels."

Not a particularly sanguine forecast. Especially when you consider spiraling gas prices will impact the shipping community in a big way – a big, BIG way: Companies like UPS will be forced to compensate and raise their fees sky high.

And that means ... well, you know what it means.

So how's 'bout it, boys?

[parsig9]

It is an interesting discussion Gort and I've been following what the "experts" are saying about oil too.

Problem is, I don't believe it. I know, I know supply and demand blah blah blah....

40% of the oil prices we're seeing now is being driven by speculators and the futures market not by real demand.

It's (the phantom demand driving up the price artificially) going to tank (sorry). We're due for a 20% correction in the next 6 months IMHO. I do not expect ot see or pay $5/gallon for fuel.

If anything, we've seen the price of models decrease over the last few years. I'm not talking the $60-$70 jets, I mean FM/Armour and Corgi WWII models.

I.ve never paid less for planes than this last 12 months or so. Throw in HM which I find for less than $30 shipped all the time and it's still diecast heaven.

I don't care what shipping charges are. Now let's all go shop for an Escalade!

[wmosner]

Doubling the shipping fees would end it for me.

[PappyB]

There's always going to be deals to be found, so I don't think it will have that much impact on the hobby for me. And according to our fearless leader, all we have to do is convert all the national parks to oil fields and we'll be fine

[parsig9]

Originally Posted by PappyB

There's always going to be deals to be found, so I don't think it will have that much impact on the hobby for me. And according to our fearless leader, all we have to do is convert all the national parks to oil fields and we'll be fine

That doesn't sound like something Gavin would say at all.

[STARMAN 352ND]

Originally Posted by PappyB

according to our fearless leader, all we have to do is convert all the national parks to oil fields and we'll be fine

Originally Posted by parsig9

That doesn't sound like something Gavin would say at all.

I think he meant Bush didn't you?
JP

[Nimrod48]

The cost of fuel in the UK is already having an effect on what I purchase during the rest of 2008 the pump price for a gallon of diesel was £5.32 when I went to fill up last week & on average I use six gallons a week for my 44 mile daily commute to work plus trips to the supermarket.
Also I have to swallow the fact that our glorious government has abolished the lowest rate of tax for the lowest paid five million plus workers which includes me which means paying an extra £40 or so a month in tax & means my collecting will suffer big time.
My consolation is that I managed to find the 1:16 Wittmann Tiger this week @ under £200 with free shipping but I fear that will be the last of the big spends for many months.

[Gort]

Originally Posted by parsig9

It is an interesting discussion Gort and I've been following what the "experts" are saying about oil too.

Problem is, I don't believe it. I know, I know supply and demand blah blah blah....

40% of the oil prices we're seeing now is being driven by speculators and the futures market not by real demand.

It's (the phantom demand driving up the price artificially) going to tank (sorry). We're due for a 20% correction in the next 6 months IMHO. I do not expect ot see or pay $5/gallon for fuel.

If anything, we've seen the price of models decrease over the last few years. I'm not talking the $60-$70 jets, I mean FM/Armour and Corgi WWII models.

I.ve never paid less for planes than this last 12 months or so. Throw in HM which I find for less than $30 shipped all the time and it's still diecast heaven.

I don't care what shipping charges are. Now let's all go shop for an Escalade!

I pray you’re right about this coming “correction,” parsig (don’t we all-!). Heaven knows oil companies are ripping us off to the tune of billions. Any kind of relief would be a relief.

But I don’t see it happening. Not anytime soon, anyway. The dollar’s down—waaaaaaay down—and according to goodly folks in the know, that has a bunch to do with spiking oil prices. And from what I read, the dollar’s going to stay put for quite a while.

Anyway, rising shipping prices would definitely hurt diecast collecting. I agree eBay abounds with deals, and anybody with a buck and a love for diecast should snarf them up. But the higher gas goes, the less those bargains will mean.

First, shipping carriers will raise their fees to survive. The higher gas prices rise, shipping fees must surely follow. At some point shipping will become so ridiculous and unaffordable, even basement-bargain prices on models will become meaningless. Something will give, and that something will be collector spending.

Second, as gas spirals out of control, collectors will be forced to spend on basic consumer commodities like gas and food—not diecast. It’s a double whammy.

Of course, no matter how bad things get, some of us will continue to purchase models, and bless ‘em for it: In the end they might be diecast’s only saving grace.

Anyway, to answer my own question about how much more shipping increases I’ll stand for, the answer is: not a whole lot. Shipping is becoming a sizeable expense. Which is why I combine my model purchases into one big order from vendors who ship for free over $100. My days of piecemealing purchases and getting kicked in the proverbial pants from shipping are over.

[wmosner]

People keep saying that the oil companies are ripping us off, ever look at the side of a pump and see how much you are taxed?

[ChairmanMilo]

I know that shipping costs will continue to rise - my plan is to purchase mainly from Canadian and UK retailers from now on.

I already absolutely detest the fact that I get dinged by customs almost every time I get a package from the USA. I never get dinged when I receive items from the United Kingdom, and shipping from there is reasonable (as long as we're talking one or two planes max).