[Gort]

I’m telling tales out of school, and I have no way of knowing if this is true. Frankly, I think it’s a lot of hooey-dooey. But here’s the story for what it’s worth ...

My computer bit the dust yesterday, causing me no end to grief. That’s neither here nor there, but I took it to an acquaintance for repair. His wife is Chinese, he’s Caucasian. During a pleasant chat we talked about the economy, how it sucks, how it going to suck even more, etc. And then I told him about my fanatical interest in diecast.

I told him that diecast imports to the USA have hit a snag. Newly produced Chinese diecast models have slowed to a crawl, I said, and though many collectors regard this phenomenon as a seasonal lull, I believe there’s something more to it. Something more ominous. And that’s when he hit me with this ...

Says Nathan, his wife, who currently resides in China (another story entirely), reports that social upheaval there is rising at an unprecedented rate. She claims that the police presence in her city (can’t say where) has increased five fold. Cops everywhere. Lots of talk of food shortages; everybody getting extremely anxious.

Then Nathan lays it on me: He says the Chinese people are fed up with their government; they’re apprehensive about where their next meal is coming from, how they’re going to survive and so forth. And this, in turn, is fomenting civil unrest.

The news media over there is blacked out, of course, which is why we in the West never hear about it. But the effect is chilling: Businesses (some, anyway) are teetering, peasants are rebelling; the police and army are cracking down. Apparently this has put the fear of Zeus into the powers that be, who, as you’d expect, are imposing their iron-fisted will on business and other sectors.

How this impacts the diecast market remains to be seen, but considering that exports are down by the nose, you've gotta wonder.

So, there it is.

Personally, I don’t put a lot of stock in it. If anything, the Chinese economy is red hot. So hot, in fact, that China has had to arbitrarily cool it off a bit.

Anyway, I hope this is a load of crap. Nathan's a talker, but his wife does live in Mainland China, and she does fill Nathan in on particulars. It would chill me to the bone if we were witnessing the demise of what was (and still is) the greatest hobby on earth.

[Hoverbug]

Hard to tell what's going on there for sure, but one thing is clear, it isn't a stable economic or social environment. Just to see where they are now compared with fourty years ago in the height of the Cultural Revolution is enough to make your head spin. There's nothing to say it can't spiral around the other way again. Though if it does, it'll take everyone else's economy with it. What scares me is that if things to start to head south, you can see some hothead deciding that it's a good time to go after Taiwan to re-instill some national fervor - and next thing you know we're in a shooting war with a major nuclear power.

[SneakyPete]

Originally Posted by Gort

Then Nathan lays it on me: He says the Chinese people are fed up with their government; they’re apprehensive about where their next meal is coming from, how they’re going to survive and so forth. And this, in turn, is fomenting civil unrest.

To paraphrase... Let them eat zinc!

[Epapazian]

Over the past three to four years, I've heard quite a few stories about peasant and worker unrest in China, punctuated by periodic mini-revolts and the like. After the demise of the USSR everyone speculated on the future of similar regimes in China and North Korea, however these proved more durable, largely by virtue of their leaders' terror tactics and suppression of all opposition. It could be that the people in these countries have finally been exposed to enough of Western-style freedom via trade and communication sources such as the Internet to see how attractive other governmental options and economic systems really are. In which case, these last bastions of Communism may, indeed, be crumbling. If so, good riddance!

As for the future of our military diecast collecting hobby, I think that we must recognize that the bargain basement days, based on cheap Chinese labor, are ending. As new business models and distribution schemes are developed, prices are sure to rise dramatically. Let's hope that quality and sensible product selection keeps pace.

[1250ships]

China is eventually going to have to confront a growing problem. Life if good for the 300 million people who live along the coast and benefit from the trade with the West. The other 800 million live in the interior and their lives have changed very little in the last 100 years. Some of those 800 million flow each year to the factories along the coast to find a better life. But all 800 million can not. How long will they be willing to live in a situation without economic hope? If the government has to redistribute income to placate them will the 300 million who must give up accept that?

[SneakyPete]

Originally Posted by 1250ships

If the government has to redistribute income to placate them will the 300 million who must give up accept that?

Why not? We do....every April 15th......

[1250ships]

Originally Posted by SneakyPete

Why not? We do....every April 15th......

Well we don't have an implicit deal that the rich get the money in exchange for not having much political freedom.

Also historically we colonials have objected to certain taxes over the years.....

[Gort]

Here's another gloomy bit of news: Rice prices hit the $1,000-a-tonne level for the first time today (Thursday) as panicking importers scrambled to secure supplies, exacerbating the tightness already provoked by export restrictions in Vietnam, India, Egypt, China and Cambodia.

The jump came as the Philippines, the largest rice importer, failed for the fourth time to secure as much rice as it wanted.

Kind of makes you wonder about Chinese peasant angst, doesn't it? Call me crazy, but I'll bet things will get a lot worse in the coming months. Think this will impact diecast production?

[dilligafocau]

A eco-expert on the ABC radio was saying yesterday that if the entire worlds population was to live a comfortable 'Western' lifestyle we would need another two planets Surprisingly he did'nt mention diecast at all


A burgeoning world population seems to be far bigger challenge than climate change/ global warming

[swoop]

Originally Posted by dilligafocau

A eco-expert on the ABC radio was saying yesterday that if the entire worlds population was to live a comfortable 'Western' lifestyle we would need another two planets Surprisingly he did'nt mention diecast at all


A burgeoning world population seems to be far bigger challenge than climate change/ global warming

THE DIE IS CAST, dilligafocau.RICE AT ANY PRICE. To placate the hunger . To assuage the clamouring collector. Regarding two more planets. There isn't onother planet in the Galaxay would have this universal mess.Besides the Irish would PROBABLY get there first and a TEA shortage is bound to ensue. I know first hand