[Epapazian]

As a keen observer of the machinations of the various diecast "manufacturers"---actually they are marketers not manufacturers---as well as the primarily Chinese factories, who supply most diecast product, some trends are readily apparent. At the outset of the "Diecast Revolution"' in the early-mid 1990s, the Chinese must have hoped that low cost metal models would knock everyone's socks off, stirring a huge increase in diecast sales and, for them, lots of business---which is all they really care about. For a while, their expectations seemed to be fulfilled and many people----myself included---took up diecast collecting as a new hobby.

Switch to Phase Two, and suddenly lots of companies began to exploit the low cost production capabilities of the Chinese factories---everyone wanted to jump on the bandwagon and rake in the profits. Unfortunately, Corgi, Dragon, etc.failed to recognize the need to develop the hobby's customer base. Instead, they concentrated of the most well known planes---P-51s, Spitfires, BF-109s, etc as a way to reduce risks, and by the early 2000s a glut of such models was developing. As every new company entered the marketplace, we got still more P-51s , Spits, BF-109s, and the consumer base failed to expand to absorb so many "me too" models. Meanwhile, the Chinese became increasingly frustrated. Their primary concern is mass production, not, to them, inconsequential runs of 1000-2000 per model. They had relied companies like Corgi to develop the market for diecast product. Now, they were disappointed and sought other avenues to use their mass production facilities, while losing interest in Corgi's small run, two or three model at a time orders.

The answer seemed to come from magazine publishers, who would order 25-50 planes into production with runs of 5000 or more per model, using these as cheap give-aways to promote subscription sales. Most of these models were of very low quality, but for a while, such orders kept the Chinese happy. Then, somebody got the idea to exploit the collector's market, so along came IXO, using molds and detailing schemes already developed for a publisher's promotion.This experience seems to have thought the Chinese two things. First, that they needed to provide a better product, not one optimized exclusively for ease of production and assembly like the first IXO "line". The second lesson was this. Why bother with Corgi and the others? Instead cut your own production and distribution deals and market your own product.

So now we have what appears to be a deal with Altaya, where the magazine publishers fund the costs of mold development and order 50 at a time into production with hundreds of thousands of models in their total order. However, many of these models are specifically intended for the collector's market and are sold by conventional vendors taking pre-orders. At the same time, MRC is going the same mass production/distribution route,using plastic in its Easy Model line, but without the need to amortize expensive mold costs via pacts with publishers.

In view of these developments, it's no wonder that the diecast market, in its latest phase, is witnessing a retrenchment. Having skimmed the cream off the top, Dragon has pulled back on new airplane molds. Meanwhile, some marketers are throwing in the towel, while Corgi has certainly switched to a more cautious mode. Even Hobby Master, which we all welcomed enthusiastically, appears to have slowed its expansion pace.

So where does this leave us? As I see it, the traditional diecast companies---Corgi, et al----that survive, will increasingly become niche marketers who do small runs of relatively few aircraft, offering superior quality and larger scales---but at higher prices. The bulk of the market will probably go the way the Chinese want--with fairly decent models, lots of product diversity , scales in the 1:72-1:144 range and relatively cheap prices. Is this a bad thing? I have mixed feelings and would be pleased if my prognosis is wrong. But I really like the idea of getting all of those models that are on my huge wish list, without waiting ten or fifteen years for Corgi to do them. What do you guys think?

[parsig9]

To be honest, there aren't that many molds left for them to make that I am just dying for. Schemes of existing molds is more where I am.
For molds, and I know we have done this a million times, but just to show all how short my list really is:

WWII Dornier 217...maybe
Helldiver, Vindicator, Devastator
Betty and Kate
P-61

After that not too sure, but that's not much!

I think that was a very well written post there Epap, and I honestly don't know how much of the history of the market is accurate. Yes, I agree Corgi will survive and $40+ models will be more the norm, but I'm ok with only 5-6 new models a year at this point if that's all there was. If you make it I will come but I may not keep it permanently. As far as the cheeper ones go, flood away! I don't mind and it allows me to pick up a few more obscure molds I would normally pass on for cheap. Yes, I even like a few Easy Models.

[djjeffhall]

Epapazian,
parsig9 said the same thing I was thinking, there aren't that many airplanes to produce. Or, I should say, there aren't that many airplanes that can be produced and sold in the quantities that a manufacturer needs to make to turn a signifigant profit. Hence the fact that many companies start with the P-51. It sells but will a P-61? We'll buy it, but the general public probably won't. At least not in the quantities that a manufacturer needs to make them in.

[Cruver Collecter]

Originally Posted by djjeffhall

Epapazian,
parsig9 said the same thing I was thinking, there aren't that many airplanes to produce. Or, I should say, there aren't that many airplanes that can be produced and sold in the quantities that a manufacturer needs to make to turn a signifigant profit. Hence the fact that many companies start with the P-51. It sells but will a P-61? We'll buy it, but the general public probably won't. At least not in the quantities that a manufacturer needs to make them in.

My question would be, how big a cross section of the diecast community do we represent. To be honest, most folks probably would not have thought that the Brewster Buffalo would have ever been put out as a diecast model, let alone sold in any numbers. I cannot say for sure, but it seems that the Hobby Master Buffalo has sold fairly well. So if an airplane as obscure as the Buffalo has done rather well, my thoughts are that an aircraft like the P-61 might do even better. At this point I would still like to point out that I am all in favor of the more obscure aircraft. Give me any of the following: Fokker D.XXI, Curitss P36/Hawk 74, PZL 11C, Fiat Cr 42, Fiat G50, Macchi C.200, Polikarpov I-16, Polikarpov I-153, Ki 27 Nate, Fairey Battle, Fairey Fulmar, Hanley Page Hampden,,,,, the list goes on. So for me as far as diecast goes, well to be honest, they are just getting started.

[hworth18]

and the consumer base failed to expand to absorb so many "me too" models

Ed, Your statement was very well written and for the most part very accurate, but to me, this one is sentence sums up the entire problem in our hobby.. Too many models and a stagnant collector base that isn't growing fast enough to justify so many models being produced.. This is also my issue with companies like Dragon and HM whom feel the need to recoup their investments in their molds over the period of one year rather then spreading out the releases over a span of years.. There are too many manufacturers wanting too much of the pie which doesn't bode well unless one of two things happen: We get a huge influx of new collectors to help absorb the models produced and make them collectible again, or, a few more manufacturers drop out of the market, which is the more probable solution and what will most likely happen..

[Epapazian]

I guess what I am really saying is this. Like it or not, the conventional business model for diecast marketers seems to be changing, due primarily to pressure from the Chinese manufacturers.While this does not preclude individual companies from carving out niche markets and departing from the mass production mode of operations, it seems increasingly unlikely that one company after another will reprise 1:48nd scale P-51s or F4Us --as in the past---until a perfect model is finally brought to market. To survive in the future, such companies will have to turn to ever wider and less duplicated pastures in selecting what planes to offer collectors---which increasingly , puts them at risk ( fewer, but higher priced and high quality products and small production runs appears to be to be the only sensible path for such enterprises). Meanwhile, the Chinese will probably try one or more mass production approaches, involving many planes that have yet to be made in diecast or were poorly done by Atlas, IXO, Altaya, etc. the first time around. And there are plenty of planes to choose from. Just look at the endless succession of wish lists posted on this forum.

All of this is simply my take on the way the situation in the diecast market seems to be developing. I'd much rather that Corgi, Dragon and Hobby Master, were turning out 10 or more non-redundant new molds annually and offering us more diversity as well as constantly improving quality. I fear, however, that this is wishful thinking. So if my prognosis is correct, we should start asking ourselves how we would react if Altaya or some other Chinese inspired entity, suddenly offered a fairly decent----but not up to the old Corgi standard---line featuring 30-40 "modern era" fighters and attack planes in 1:100th scale. Say this menu included the F8F, A-1, F-80, F-84, F-105, F-106, Mig-23, Mig-29, Mig-15, etc. plus Swedish, French, British and other planes. Would we proudly refuse to consider such a line----even if up to a third of the planes were on our own wish list? And what would be our response if yet another line---this time of WWII fighters in 1:72nd scale--was brought to market , in effect redoing many planes offered by IXO in 2005-07, but rendering them much better. Would we say, "So what, I've already got a MC-202, Yak-3, and Oscar, who needs another one?" And what if the list includes a TBD, SB2C, SB2U, P-36, Fokker DXXI, PZL-11, etc.? Frankly, I don't find this prospect---even if it is a departure from the past--- to be all that bad. I'm just thinking ahead, that's all.

[STARMAN 352ND]

I agree with what you all said and a very well written post Ed..
I think one of the problems we face now days is there are too many companies
making the same thing...I have most of what i like except the P-61 Blackwidow , Helldiver, Devastator, Japanese Betty
maybe a few other paint schemes that could be made...
All in all i wonder where the diecast market will be in 5 yrs..... How many companies will be gone ??
JP

[Cardinal]

Originally Posted by STARMAN 352ND

I agree with what you all said and a very well written post Ed..
I think one of the problems we face now days is there are too many companies
making the same thing...I have most of what i like except the P-61 Blackwidow , Helldiver, Devastator, Japanese Betty
maybe a few other paint schemes that could be made...
All in all i wonder where the diecast market will be in 5 yrs..... How many companies will be gone ??
JP

And how many collectors will remain ...?

[1250ships]

Don't assume that China will eternally be the source of production for models. There are other countries in Asia that would love to develop more contract manufacturing capability and the jobs it provides. The trick of course is getting quality production out of your facility- be it in China, Indonesia, or India.

[parsig9]

Originally Posted by hworth18

There are too many manufacturers wanting too much of the pie which doesn't bode well ...

Originally Posted by STARMAN 352ND

..I have most of what i like except the P-61 Blackwidow , Helldiver, Devastator, Japanese Betty
maybe a few other paint schemes that could be made...
All in all i wonder where the diecast market will be in 5 yrs..... How many companies will be gone ??

JP

I agree, but who can we live without? Which companies could go?

They must be making money or there would not be so many companies and retailers.

I think there is a chance that there are many more "buyers" of these than we think though not all of them might call themselves collectors. Somebody needs to start selling these things at a national retailer like.....well I don't know but I think that the hobby is mostly limited to online hobby and model shops and that is not good for expanding the collector base. When I show the collection to a guest or friend, most of them still say," where do you get all these things"! They have never heard of or seen anything like it. It's not like diecast NASCAR! I see those things everywhere from Walmart to the local autoparts store. Maybe Tuesday Morning or Target is the place for Warbirds at least and then have a little flyer in the package telling the buyer what else is available. Just a thought.