[JustPlaneNuttz]

Originally Posted by Epapazian

" . . . how can all of these competing marketers expect to make meaningful profits?

I'm sure that is the question many of them who got in to 'steal market share' from Corgi are now pondering. I know Western Models in the U.K. tanked last year because they could NOT make a go of it anymore. (Fact is, they used what appeared to be waterslide decals on their 1:200 Civil line that had a reputation of flaking off when handled, which turned off a lot of collectors due to the hit-n-miss nature of quality, such as myself. The detail was really nice, though) Of course they also had the 'cost factor' to contend with, because if I remember correctly, Western made everything in England still (although I could be wrong on that one.)

JPN

[smartd]

Let's not forget that all the long established plastic kit manufacturers also had their problems, changing ownership and direction many times over the years.
It was always the bread and butter models that kept them alive.
Many of us collect multiple versions of the same basic aircraft because of new markings etc.
Production runs and costs do not have to be huge when models only need a change of colours to make them saleable. Even the heavies with their higher costs sell when the markings are changed.
Look at the Lanc and B-17s as an example, we buy 'em because they are good models and we get, sometimes, the markings we want.
If diecast manufacturers can keep a steady profit margin with this outlook then they could afford to "experiment" with some lesser known aircraft that we keep asking for here.
Market research should be a key and any manufacturer who does not monitor sites like ours are kidding themselves that they know what the public will buy.
We keep telling them but are they listening?

[Epapazian]

Originally Posted by parsig9

This may go back to what I was saying about there being more buyers than we think there are. Take that 50k number you threw out there Ed. If that holds up, then UK and US forum members account for only 1-2% of the market... Can that be right? Maybe. The other night I noticed 26 members on here and 84 guests! That's alot of lurkers who are interested in what's going on with the hobby. I wonder what % of the buyers never visit our site and get all their info from Flight Journal for example, which leads them to Pete's and Flying Mule etc...

This question of who buys all these models has fascinated me for a while now because it wasn't too long ago that I had also never thought of collecting airplanes,and reading the books and buying the art...........and so on..................

In almost every product category a relatively small percentage of the total user base accounts for a disproportionate share of total volume. Typically ten percent of the users or buyers, by virtue of much heavier than normal consumption, may represent 20-30% of a manufacturer's sales. In contrast, the bottom ten percent of the users often delivers a mere 1%. In our case, I think that forums like ours, plus a number of others, include a very high proportion of more frequent buyers than the norm. So, if The Model Hangar II's membership does in fact, account for only 1-2% of the worldwide collector base for diecast warbirds, it probably buys 3-5% of the models sold---and possibly more. Which is another good reason for diecast marketers to monitor what we think about their offerings, new directions to consider, etc.

[JustPlaneNuttz]

Originally Posted by smartd

Let's not forget that all the long established plastic kit manufacturers also had their problems, changing ownership and direction many times over the years.
It was always the bread and butter models that kept them alive.
Many of us collect multiple versions of the same basic aircraft because of new markings etc.
Production runs and costs do not have to be huge when models only need a change of colours to make them saleable. Even the heavies with their higher costs sell when the markings are changed.
Look at the Lanc and B-17s as an example, we buy 'em because they are good models and we get, sometimes, the markings we want.
If diecast manufacturers can keep a steady profit margin with this outlook then they could afford to "experiment" with some lesser known aircraft that we keep asking for here.
Market research should be a key and any manufacturer who does not monitor sites like ours are kidding themselves that they know what the public will buy.
We keep telling them but are they listening?

I mentioned the Airfix book I am reading in an earlier post (25), and you are correct, Smartd, they ran into similar issues. Mind you, the Airfix guys seemed to have a VERY intuitive grip on their market -- something I doubt Corgi for instance, has.

JPN

[djjeffhall]

Sorry to resurrect this thread from the dead but I just rediscovered it.

On the old Model Hanger forum Martin started a thread really similiar to this talking about how few collectors are really out there. On on hand, he is absolutely correct since, as has been pointed out, after you print 600-800 of a model, it tends to sit for a while before selling.

On the other hand, and the question that I proposed to Martin that no one could really answer is is this, if there are so few collectors, where are all the Lancasters? I've never seen one, I'd really love to have one, but look on line and outside of Perry's (Who has them at really outlandish prices.) Lancasters are rare as hens teeth. On Tricatus's website, there are about 25000 Lancasters, not including the "unlimited" ones where Tricatus estimates there are 10K of each. That equals about 40,000 Lancasters (rounding off to keep it simple folks, roll with me here) with two unlimited liveries and the limited ones. If there are only 500 or so "hardcore" collectors, that means that everyone has approximately 80 lancasters each. Or a little more since I don't have even one. < lol >

I can't explain where all the collectors are? Either there 39,500 Lancasters floating around on peoples shelves/closets/display cases who are unknown to the collecting community, or Corgi is doing an amazing job of hiding them in a forgotten warehouse.

I think the real problem is that no one is approaching the numbers correctly. I don't know what the "correct" approach is, but clearly no one has really tapped into it yet. Add the numbers up on Tricatus's website. The birds are going somewhere, but that somewhere is not being reflected in the long term market. Maybe its the nature of the market and product? Maybe folks who are willing to buy diecast only buy one, and forever forget about it? Maybe they buy one and run out of room? Again, I don't know the answer?

[smartd]

Originally Posted by djjeffhall

Sorry to resurrect this thread from the dead but I just rediscovered it.

On the old Model Hanger forum Martin started a thread really similiar to this talking about how few collectors are really out there. On on hand, he is absolutely correct since, as has been pointed out, after you print 600-800 of a model, it tends to sit for a while before selling.

On the other hand, and the question that I proposed to Martin that no one could really answer is is this, if there are so few collectors, where are all the Lancasters? I've never seen one, I'd really love to have one, but look on line and outside of Perry's (Who has them at really outlandish prices.) Lancasters are rare as hens teeth. On Tricatus's website, there are about 25000 Lancasters, not including the "unlimited" ones where Tricatus estimates there are 10K of each. That equals about 40,000 Lancasters (rounding off to keep it simple folks, roll with me here) with two unlimited liveries and the limited ones. If there are only 500 or so "hardcore" collectors, that means that everyone has approximately 80 lancasters each. Or a little more since I don't have even one. < lol >

I can't explain where all the collectors are? Either there 39,500 Lancasters floating around on peoples shelves/closets/display cases who are unknown to the collecting community, or Corgi is doing an amazing job of hiding them in a forgotten warehouse.

I think the real problem is that no one is approaching the numbers correctly. I don't know what the "correct" approach is, but clearly no one has really tapped into it yet. Add the numbers up on Tricatus's website. The birds are going somewhere, but that somewhere is not being reflected in the long term market. Maybe its the nature of the market and product? Maybe folks who are willing to buy diecast only buy one, and forever forget about it? Maybe they buy one and run out of room? Again, I don't know the answer?

The Lanc might not be the best example to use. It evokes a lot of memories and recognition with the general public as you say. I was in my local store just before Christmas and watched a kid, plop down his money and say ..."I need that for my grandfather, he used to fly in them". That said, I agree, their are a lot of single Lancs in many households where no collector lives.
Plus that fact that it is a great model most of us that collect have more than one. It is one Corgi that is surely a guaranteed sale.

[leeG]

Originally Posted by djjeffhall

I think the real problem is that no one is approaching the numbers correctly. I don't know what the "correct" approach is, but clearly no one has really tapped into it yet. Add the numbers up on Tricatus's website. The birds are going somewhere, but that somewhere is not being reflected in the long term market. Maybe its the nature of the market and product? Maybe folks who are willing to buy diecast only buy one, and forever forget about it? Maybe they buy one and run out of room? Again, I don't know the answer?

The population of the USA is 301,000,000. If during the year one person in a thousand purchased a diecast airplane that would be 301,000 models. Why would someone make this purchase? A one off gift. Don't know what to get Uncle Charlie, but doesn't he like airplanes? Or you need something to decorate the desk. Any one of a thousand random reasons for our one in a thousand people to make a purchase. Now these comments don't help us in our effort to predict the market, but it does explain where your Lancaster went.

[hworth18]

The number I implied is for the "nutter" collectors that don't buy one or two a year, but just about everything released or multiple planes each month..

[djjeffhall]

Hworth18 - Of course, I wasn't trying to imply otherwise.

Everyone else - I don't disagree with anything anyone has said, I just think there is a factor or three that we are missing, and perhaps the manufactures are missing as well, which explains why 40K Lancasters have dissapeared and God only knows how many Spitfires, P51's etc. but on certain planes and liveries, you can't give away 600 of them.

Also, while I understand that the Lancaster is a really good mould, would the casual Christmas, "I want to get one for the Grandpa since he flew in it," customer know that the Corgi P-51 is a lousy mould or a good one?

When I first started collecting I thought the Corgi P51 was the bees knees since I could actually hold a P51 in my hands. I hadn't heard of Dragon and wouldn't know a good from bad mould. It looks like a Mustang to me and that was good enough.

I didn't come from a modelling background so I didn't know the finer, "that flatened engine cowling is wrong" details and I surmise that most other folks don't either. Yeah, the Lanc is a great mould but the casual buyer wouldn't know that.

Everything that has been said is absolutely correct, yet as has been pointed out, there are 40K Lancs, 400K Mustangs (Just making that up folks) sold yet manufacturers are either going bust, or making so little money as to drop out of the market.

I just think there is probably another factor or three that we are not considering. I don't know what it is and I wish I did.

Then again, maybe I'm thinking to hard?

[MoMo]

Plastic Kits vs. Diecast:
I am currently reading Airfix: Celebrating 50 years of the Greatest Plastic Kits in the World by Arthur Ward (Collins) and although I can't speak to the financials, I can say with much certainty that there is a VERY similar business model happening here. The big difference I see is the fellows who ran Airfix had a tremendous intuitive insight into their market AND target audience. They knew that the greatest proportion of their models were built (often badly) by kids who 'flew them' on missions only to get 'hit by flak' and go down in FLAMES behind the garden shed(!) No surprise -- even I did that! Yes, they had competition, yes they had cost overruns, yes they had distribution issues, yes they had flops. But Airfix didn't have too many flops. These guys were savvy -- something I don't see coming from Corgi (for instance). I just don't think they really understand their target audience that well.

I think one of the challenges Corgi is going to have to overcome is: "Are we making models for actual 'collectors' or 'price-conscious gatherers'?" If it is the former, watch the prices climb and the release numbers drop as the varieties increase. Of course, many of us will walk from this hobby or drift over to a lower priced competitor.
Just Plane Nuts

I have the Airfix book, which makes fascinating reading for anyone with an interest in our hobby, and JPN's observations are completely relevant to the current state of play in the diecast market.

One point which I would like to add is this : Airfix were mainly responsible for creating the mass market of plastic modeling in the early 60's in the U.K. They sold millions of model kits through Woolworths. This helped give rise to the rise of Hobby Shops. Also, Airfix's own magazine with a circulation, at one time, in the tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands. There was a population of post-war baby-boomers with cash to spend and an interest in WW2 because all their dads had been there. Plastic Airfix models from Woolworths, in the Series 1 range ( Spits, etc. ) in 1.72 scale cost 2 shillings.....yes, that's right, two shillings! That's 10 pence today. That's 20 cents today !

Plastic was as cheap as anything you can imagine, and Airfix sold kits by the million. They had the good fortune and foresight to try their luck abroad and the bug caught on with millions of builders and collectors abroad.

At the same time, Gorgi and Dinky, diecast manufacturers, along with a few other firms like Matchbox, Spot-on, etc. all churned out cars and a few planes. They did good business until the baby-boomers grew up, then the market shrank. Then the cost of materials and labour went up, and some started to go to the wall.

All this is, of course, a really crude simplification of a complex toy and hobby market.

The point is, the collecting community is small. Even Corgi went bust, and it's trading name was bought by another firm. Material costs and labour costs are spiraling up again, and the diecast companies will have to move on to new manufacturing bases.

We are all well aware of the scenario.

BUT, some companies will prosper, despite the clouds on the horizon, and there will be new products for us to add to our collections.

What the shape of the market will be, your guess is as good as mine.

The " Airfix " brand has staggered from pillar to post over the years, but it soldiers on. It is almost a generic term for plastic modeling. The moulds for Airfield tenders, control towers, etc. are still in use almost 50 years since I first clapped eyes on them in my local Woolworth store, and I bet that many of you would love to have the models built and painted for you to add to your displays.

I suspect that those companies which stick reasonably close to the toy market will be the ones which will survive, but we'll see.

I suspect that Dragon will survive. FOV will still be with us. The Corgi brand will go on forever.