[Epapazian]

Originally Posted by Cruver Collecter

You bring up a good point in regards to numbers this forum and the UK forum represent. For one thing you would like to assume that all these members are fairly active in diecast collecting. Another point to look at is of the 930 members on this forum, how many are active? Just a quick look at the roster shows that around 500 folks on the roster have not logged in since last year. Using poll participation on this forum as a benchmark, well then the numbers would seem to be even lower. Even with an active membership of around 430 for this forum, polls routinely come up with less than 100 responses. Taking this into consideration, would seem to indicate we are for the most part may be a fairly small cross section of the hobby. Of the approximate 430 active members, just think of how this would vary in regards to what they collect (Armor vs. Aviation,, Aviation WWI, WWII, Cold War, and Modern). As previously mentioned, how many would fall under obsessed buyers verses the casual collector? When it comes to diecast collecting, I just wonder how many diecast collectors out their do not take advantage of this forum and the one in the UK to express their opinion?

One hint on this subject might come from a review of our visitor or "guest" lists. I believe it's a fairly routine matter to determine how many different PCs log in per month as "guests" and tally what parts of the forum they go to most often. It would be really interesting if our "guests" number 1000 or more over a three month interval. If so, that suggests that if we make an effort to broaden our scope and be more inclusive, that new members, drawn initially from our visitor base, might be forthcoming. This, obviously would help the hobby as well as our forum,

[hworth18]

You need to take into consideration that probably 33% (or more) make up the membership on both forums..
I think AgentX20 on the UK forum once said there are only about 500 dedicated collectors between the US and UK, and that number would tend to make sense when a diecast issue of 262 sells out and a diecast issue of 600-800 is still available months after issue..

[Cardinal]

Originally Posted by hworth18

You need to take into consideration that probably 33% (or more) make up the membership on both forums..
I think AgentX20 on the UK forum once said there are only about 500 dedicated collectors between the US and UK, and that number would tend to make sense when a diecast issue of 262 sells out and a diecast issue of 600-800 is still available months after issue..

So we're a right exclusive bunch then ... ?

[JustPlaneNuttz]

Originally Posted by Cruver Collecter

You bring up a good point in regards to numbers this forum and the UK forum represent. For one thing you would like to assume that all these members are fairly active in diecast collecting. Another point to look at is of the 930 members on this forum, how many are fairly active in regards to accessing this forum? Just a quick look at the roster shows that around 500 folks on the roster have not logged in since last year. Using poll participation on this forum as a benchmark, well then the numbers would seem to be even lower. Even with an active membership of around 430 for this forum, polls routinely come up with less than 100 responses. Taking this into consideration, would seem to indicate we are for the most part may be a fairly small cross section of the hobby. Of the approximate 430 active members, just think of how this would vary in regards to what they collect (Armor vs. Aviation,, Aviation WWI, WWII, Cold War, and Modern). As previously mentioned, how many would fall under obsessed buyers verses the casual collector? When it comes to diecast collecting, I just wonder how many diecast collectors out their do not take advantage of this forum and the one in the UK to express their opinion?

Absolutely, CC. The big problem is we are using the phrase "I wonder". And I'd be prepared to lay a years salary on the table that says Corgi's Marketing Department is using a similar phrase. How can I be so sure of this? I've worked in enough of them during my career to know that it is a rare day that adequate funds are secured to underwrite meaningful research. It also takes time to gather, interpret and apply. So instead they 'wing it'. And because this is such a fickle and NEW market place (with NOW such competition), I can see Corgi's marketing group being overwhelmed. You are right. At the end of the day, 1,700+ combined members translate into about 50-80 active (vocal) members across both forums. But -- are the quiet ones buying and not talking?? What are the lurkers doing?

I don't know -- this frustrates AND intrigues me all at the same time! I hope Corgi knows what they are doing.

JPN

[JustPlaneNuttz]

Originally Posted by Epapazian

One hint on this subject might come from a review of our visitor or "guest" lists. I believe it's a fairly routine matter to determine how many different PCs log in per month as "guests"

Just a note for what it is worth -- I often DON'T sign in -- either out of laziness or I'm using any one of my various other browsers / computers -- so I become a 'guest' in the eyes of the tracking software. I wonder how many others do somewhat likewise? (Sign in at home but not at work, for instance.)

JPN

[Elmer]

Originally Posted by hworth18

Here is a list of manufacturers that I feel are on the edge of bailing out of the market, if they aren't already, or, these same manufacturers could be waiting to see what the market will do before they proceed with any new product:

Gemini Aces
Carousel One
Eagles International
Gaincorp
Sunstar

A real bummer for me... my two favorite 1:48 producers are on that list, but I have suspected for some time that they will soon throw in the towel. If C1 and EI go, it leaves me with HM and Corgi as the only 1:48 diecast alternatives.

[1250ships]

Originally Posted by hworth18

Here is a list of manufacturers that I feel are on the edge of bailing out of the market, if they aren't already, or, these same manufacturers could be waiting to see what the market will do before they proceed with any new product:

Gemini Aces
Carousel One
Eagles International
Gaincorp
Sunstar

Interestingly both Gemini and Corousel have established businesses in other areas. Perhaps the return on their investment in warbirds was disappointing and they have decided to concentrate on their core business.

[flyXwire]

Originally Posted by 1250ships

Interestingly both Gemini and Corousel have established businesses in other areas. Perhaps the return on their investment in warbirds was disappointing and they have decided to concentrate on their core business.

I agree, I kinda-sorta saw it that way too! It's a real shame because I still want to see more a/c from Carousel 1 as well.

[Epapazian]

As far as the current size of the diecast warbird market is concerned, there is a tendency to underestimate it when using forum membership as a guide. For example, say a typical U.S.-based online seller makes a meager $100,000 pre-tax profit on this segment of the diecast business. If you assume an average retail price per unit of $50, this nets the vendor about $20 after accounting for his expenses. So, to generate an annual income of $100,000, the vendor must sell 5000 models. Of course, there are many more than 20 online vendors serving the U.S. and overseas markets. In addition, there are countless hobby stores plus mass market chains and, of course, there is eBay.

Clearly, if there were only 500 collectors in this market segment, the average collector would have to buy something like 600 models per year to make any sense of the distribution numbers---hardly a likely possibility. A far more reasonable estimate is closer to 50,000 collectors world wide, including occasional buyers,at one extreme, and hard core addicts, at the other. Even if this is an accurate figure---and it's merely my own speculation-- the number remains minute relative to the number of companies vying for the collectors' favor and the number of products they are offering. So the question remains, unless the military aircraft diecast collectors' segment can be dramatically expanded, how can all of these competing marketers expect to make meaningful profits?

[parsig9]

This may go back to what I was saying about there being more buyers than we think there are. Take that 50k number you threw out there Ed. If that holds up, then UK and US forum members account for only 1-2% of the market... Can that be right? Maybe. The other night I noticed 26 members on here and 84 guests! That's alot of lurkers who are interested in what's going on with the hobby. I wonder what % of the buyers never visit our site and get all their info from Flight Journal for example, which leads them to Pete's and Flying Mule etc...

This question of who buys all these models has fascinated me for a while now because it wasn't too long ago that I had also never thought of collecting airplanes,and reading the books and buying the art...........and so on..................