[duxford]

Oh, I just spent the last half hour thanking and congratulating--with great figures on my collection since 2004.

Then the &*^%%$#@ was gone. How come I get timed out?

Anyhow, thanks LTC Starman.

My first Corgi Mustang was $17.99; my latest, Missouri Mauler was $34.99 = 99% increase. My Model Powers have done much better.

Remember that great word from The Graduate? PLASTIC?

Well, here it is ZINC....

[parsig9]

Originally Posted by hworth18

Here is a list of manufacturers that I feel are on the edge of bailing out of the market, if they aren't already, or, these same manufacturers could be waiting to see what the market will do before they proceed with any new product:

Gemini Aces
Carousel One
Eagles International
Gaincorp
Sunstar

Already gone:
GMP
Matchbox
Revell
Aeroart

Generally speaking, on this list, I see that it's the larger scales and the inferior jets that did them in. Witty and Dragon killed Gaincorp and Sunstar and now, I think you might add Witty to the list too as none of their product sells out and, though I like them, is regularly dumped. Eagles and C1 though beautiful are not 72nd and cost too much for the demand. Same with GMP. Aeroart screwed up their one mold

Gemini makes a great B but the only decent/interesting and affordable Spitfire is Plagis and the Yellow nose Messerschmitt's have been done to death. Hence, the early Spits with the wrong paint, that all look alike, and the 109s just sit.

The moral of the story is 72 only and WWII primarily with only very short ventures outside that to do very good/poular jets that will sell in a small market.
Of the WWII birds, give us the planes we want. If you don't know the best 109s, Spits, or whatever to make then ask. It seems that Hobby Master asked but they've run amok now. Finally, ask only me as I know best.

HM better take notice. The 1/48 stuff isn't going anywhere HM! I picked up my one Buffalo for $15. Don't make too many Panthers or you're not gonna like it.
Can CW really sell 5000+ Intruders or Crusaders? Really, I'm asking, because I'm way outta touch with this market. Are there enough Navy jet nuts to buy up all these?

[MoMo]

Start collecting tanks Guys. The market is boyant and there are great issues in the pipeline.

[Epapazian]

Originally Posted by parsig9

Generally speaking, on this list, I see that it's the larger scales and the inferior jets that did them in. Witty and Dragon killed Gaincorp and Sunstar and now, I think you might add Witty to the list too as none of their product sells out and, though I like them, is regularly dumped. Eagles and C1 though beautiful are not 72nd and cost too much for the demand. Same with GMP. Aeroart screwed up their one mold

Gemini makes a great B but the only decent/interesting and affordable Spitfire is Plagis and the Yellow nose Messerschmitt's have been done to death. Hence, the early Spits with the wrong paint, that all look alike, and the 109s just sit.

The moral of the story is 72 only and WWII primarily with only very short ventures outside that to do very good/poular jets that will sell in a small market.
Of the WWII birds, give us the planes we want. If you don't know the best 109s, Spits, or whatever to make then ask. It seems that Hobby Master asked but they've run amok now. Finally, ask only me as I know best.

HM better take notice. The 1/48 stuff isn't going anywhere HM! I picked up my one Buffalo for $15. Don't make too many Panthers or you're not gonna like it.
Can CW really sell 5000+ Intruders or Crusaders? Really, I'm asking, because I'm way outta touch with this market. Are there enough Navy jet nuts to buy up all these?

Obviously. going to a larger scale than 1:72 is a dangerous game to play--even if there seems to be a demand for it. The kit-makers have certainly gone in this direction over the past five or six years, but the cost of plastic, once the initial mold is amortized, must be only a fraction of the metal costs that diecast entails. The problem is that manufacturers don't seem to be able to read the market very well. Listen to the relative handful of detail conscious collectors, and you get pushed toward larger scales. Listen to the cost conscious collectors and you consider plastic as an alternative---as Admiral did.

I don't see any solution to the current diecast market situation, which is in flux. As the shakeout continues, perhaps the survivors will learn that they need to talk to smarter people and develop a market by example rather than trying everything at once to see what "works"--as appears to be Hobby Master's strategy. In other words, come up with something different---say a new scale ( 1:100, for example ) and a slelction of models that haven't been done to death. Add pilot figures, tone down the panel lines and devise decent stands, etc. The trade-off, cost wise, may be the wheels up and down option. Or this might work better with a slightly larger scale--say 1:72. Who knows? But thrashing about in apparent confusion--as is so evident today--isn't the answer.

One thing seems fairly certain. So long as the manufacturers are without their own factories and can't effectively control the quality of their product nor delivery dates, they are at the mercy of the Chinese or any other sweatshop labor country that promises lower costs. The obvious solution would be for a consortium of diecast companies to work together, setting up their own plant in a Third World nation and sharing its facilities. This would be a difficult concept to sell, initially, however, if the participating diecast companies worked out "spheres of influence", carving up the market by scale, era and genre to cut down redundancy, it might work. I realize that this is a far too radical direction for the established entities to consider, so one by one they will depart the scene. Hopefully, those that replace them will not repeat the same mistakes.

[JustPlaneNuttz]

Some of you in the biz, please forgive my naive sounding insights, but after reading a few more posts here, this is starting to sound like a 'winner takes all' situation.

When I first heard/saw this diecast (aircraft) stuff, I can only remember seeing Corgi (the marque familiar from my childhood) out there. This would have been around 1999 or so. I saw no other makes. Perhaps I didn't look hard enough, but in the giant annual Toy Show we have here, there has always been an amazing amount of diecast collectible dealers represented (vintage and new). Over the last 3-4 years I have found out about the various others new names from various retail sites. Are they, indeed, 'Johnny-come-lately's' as I suspect, or were they there when Corgi started (or even before?)

From what I am seeing here, I suspect the market just simply isn't big enough for everyone -- and it sounds like the weaklings are being weeded out. Am I right (or wrong)?

Plastic Kits vs. Diecast:
I am currently reading Airfix: Celebrating 50 years of the Greatest Plastic Kits in the World by Arthur Ward (Collins) and although I can't speak to the financials, I can say with much certainty that there is a VERY similar business model happening here. The big difference I see is the fellows who ran Airfix had a tremendous intuitive insight into their market AND target audience. They knew that the greatest proportion of their models were built (often badly) by kids who 'flew them' on missions only to get 'hit by flak' and go down in FLAMES behind the garden shed(!) No surprise -- even I did that! Yes, they had competition, yes they had cost overruns, yes they had distribution issues, yes they had flops. But Airfix didn't have too many flops. These guys were savvy -- something I don't see coming from Corgi (for instance). I just don't think they really understand their target audience that well.

I think one of the challenges Corgi is going to have to overcome is: "Are we making models for actual 'collectors' or 'price-conscious gatherers'?" If it is the former, watch the prices climb and the release numbers drop as the varieties increase. Of course, many of us will walk from this hobby or drift over to a lower priced competitor.

Just my 2¢ worth.

JPN

[Rush104]

Originally Posted by JustPlaneNuttz

From what I am seeing here, I suspect the market just simply isn't big enough for everyone -- and it sounds like the weaklings are being weeded out. Am I right (or wrong)?

JPN

It just sounds like the normal up and down business cycle in action here. Right now, things are pointing down, and some companies have to go. The market will eventually stabilize, and hopefully expand again with new companies entering the fray.

[leeG]

If they are relying solely on the collectors as represented by the MH II membership, the diecast manufacturers may indeed be due for a shakeout. How many models can be consumed by the collector base? I'm not sure what qualifies as a 'nutter' collector, but I've been buying on average four models a month over the last year. That's roughly 10 models a year from each company whose models I collect. I expect to sustain this purchase rate over the next six months. After that, my purchase rate will depend on what new molds are offered. So if I am typical, how many manufacturers can survive? I also see that each collector will eventually reach a saturation point beyond which they can absorb no more models. Display space is a big limiter. Plus variety of molds. How many Mustangs does one need? (Although you can never have too many P-40s)

I collect 1/72 WW II and am starting 1/48 WW I. My needs can easily be satisfied by four manufacturers if they produce a combined total of twelve new quality molds a year.

[JustPlaneNuttz]

Originally Posted by leeG

If they are relying solely on the collectors as represented by the MH II membership, the diecast manufacturers may indeed be due for a shakeout. How many models can be consumed by the collector base? I'm not sure what qualifies as a 'nutter' collector, but I've been buying on average four models a month over the last year. That's roughly 10 models a year from each company whose models I collect. I expect to sustain this purchase rate over the next six months. After that, my purchase rate will depend on what new molds are offered. So if I am typical, how many manufacturers can survive? I also see that each collector will eventually reach a saturation point beyond which they can absorb no more models. Display space is a big limiter. Plus variety of molds. How many Mustangs does one need? (Although you can never have too many P-40s)

I collect 1/72 WW II and am starting 1/48 WW I. My needs can easily be satisfied by four manufacturers if they produce a combined total of twelve new quality molds a year.

You raise some very valid and disturbing points, Lee. IMHO, you are right about the collector base. Between the members here (930) and the our U.K. sister forum (831), can these 1,761 people actually be counted on to sustain these companies? I don't think so. Who knows what percentage are 'obsessed buyers' vs. 'casual dabblers'. I know before becoming a member on both is forum and the U.K. one, my only source of info about new releases was either 1.) Diecast magazines from the U.K and 2.) online retailers like Aiken's. Since becoming 'enlightened' my spending has gone WAY UP (and that needs to come way down! Saturation point quickly achieved -- rotation out of control! -- downsize!)

The 'smart company' who knows how to 'evolve or die' will figure out NEW places to reach out and touch NEW collectors and give them ALL the right reasons to start collecting while making the process fun! And if they are REALLY smart, cost won't factor into this at all.

JPN

[Epapazian]

Originally Posted by JustPlaneNuttz

You raise some very valid and disturbing points, Lee. IMHO, you are right about the collector base. Between the members here (930) and the our U.K. sister forum (831), can these 1,761 people actually be counted on to sustain these companies? I don't think so. Who knows what percentage are 'obsessed buyers' vs. 'casual dabblers'. I know before becoming a member on both is forum and the U.K. one, my only source of info about new releases was either 1.) Diecast magazines from the U.K and 2.) online retailers like Aiken's. Since becoming 'enlightened' my spending has gone WAY UP (and that needs to come way down! Saturation point quickly achieved -- rotation out of control! -- downsize!)

The 'smart company' who knows how to 'evolve or die' will figure out NEW places to reach out and touch NEW collectors and give them ALL the right reasons to start collecting while making the process fun! And if they are REALLY smart, cost won't factor into this at all.

JPN

While I happen to believe that the military diecast market is a lot larger than is realized, it has not been properly cultivated and developed .I think we all agree on that.The kit-makers have numerous magazines in many countries to promote their wares , plus swap meets, annual contests, and the like, but little of this exists for our hobby. Indeed, we are guilty to some degree, ourselves. Suppose we changed our name from The Model Hangar, which by its own wording tells someone we are only about aircraft, and dubbed ourselves "The Military Collectors and Modeling Forum---or something along those lines. To begin with, this reflects reality. In addition, it allows us to gather in more members---including many who have no idea that quality warbird products are made by diecast marketers and have no inkling of how much variety already exists in this field. As these new members read our posts and see our pictures, many will, at first, be surprised. Then, they will start thinking about joining in the fun. It's not a stretch to assume that some will become converts. What's more, we would learn a lot from thier experience and input.

[Cruver Collecter]

Originally Posted by JustPlaneNuttz

You raise some very valid and disturbing points, Lee. IMHO, you are right about the collector base. Between the members here (930) and the our U.K. sister forum (831), can these 1,761 people actually be counted on to sustain these companies? I don't think so. Who knows what percentage are 'obsessed buyers' vs. 'casual dabblers'. I know before becoming a member on both is forum and the U.K. one, my only source of info about new releases was either 1.) Diecast magazines from the U.K and 2.) online retailers like Aiken's. Since becoming 'enlightened' my spending has gone WAY UP (and that needs to come way down! Saturation point quickly achieved -- rotation out of control! -- downsize!)

The 'smart company' who knows how to 'evolve or die' will figure out NEW places to reach out and touch NEW collectors and give them ALL the right reasons to start collecting while making the process fun! And if they are REALLY smart, cost won't factor into this at all.

JPN

You bring up a good point in regards to numbers this forum and the UK forum represent. For one thing you would like to assume that all these members are fairly active in diecast collecting. Another point to look at is of the 930 members on this forum, how many are fairly active in regards to accessing this forum? Just a quick look at the roster shows that around 500 folks on the roster have not logged in since last year. Using poll participation on this forum as a benchmark, well then the numbers would seem to be even lower. Even with an active membership of around 430 for this forum, polls routinely come up with less than 100 responses. Taking this into consideration, would seem to indicate we are for the most part may be a fairly small cross section of the hobby. Of the approximate 430 active members, just think of how this would vary in regards to what they collect (Armor vs. Aviation,, Aviation WWI, WWII, Cold War, and Modern). As previously mentioned, how many would fall under obsessed buyers verses the casual collector? When it comes to diecast collecting, I just wonder how many diecast collectors out their do not take advantage of this forum and the one in the UK to express their opinion?