[Rush104]

Don't get me wrong- Iran getting a nuclear bomb would be bad. And, you bring up an excellent point when you say that the Soviets and North Koreans do not fear God- but Teheran does. Right now, though, we face two more immediate threats-
1) The 50-200 nuclear weapons (mostly suitcase nukes) that the Russians cannot account for. Some of those are either already in the hands of the terrorists, or in the hands of someone willing to sell them to terrorists. Couple this with our lax border security; and
2) Pakistan- Musharraf isn't in the most stable situation. If he's ousted from power, and a hard-line Muslim regime takes over, there's a very good probability that nukes would be used against somebody; either India or one of our carrier battle groups in the IO. Pakistan already has a stockpile of nukes, and multiple ways to deliver them. I just hope we have a plan to either go in and secure those nukes, or destroy them if the worst happens and a hard line regime does come to power in Pakistan.
We could face either of the above before Iran develops a bomb. That's why "the specter of WW3" if Iran gets the bomb is not at the top of my worry list.
I also believe that going to war with Iran is not the best way to solve this.
I don't know how true Iran's claims of launching 11,000 missiles if attacked would be; but assuming they had that many, and could only launch ten percent of those, that's still a sufficient number to seriously disrupt the flow of oil from the Middle East. I believe whatever missiles they had would be launched at the terminals, pipelines, etc. carrying oil to the rest of the world. I seriously believe that Iran would do its best to disrupt the world's economy, if attacked. Not to mention turning loose whatever terrorist organizations that Iran is directing to inflict as much harm on innocent people (and their way of life) as possible.
From what I understand, Iran is ripe for an internal revolution. In my opinion, the best way to handle them would be to destabilize Iran from within. A war would only galvanize the people behind their leader. Do what we did with the Eastern bloc during Reagan's tenure- provide support to the dissident groups within and outside of Iran; set-up some good propaganda mechanisms to target the Iranian people (a mid-east version of Radio Free Europe, hacking into the Iranian web servers, etc), and cut deals with the countries that would also like to see Iran isolated. And, to satisfy world opinion, we could open talks with Iran. Even if we did talk to them, we would not be recognizing the "legitimacy" of Ahmidenijad's government. We would be under no obligation to grant them concessions, and we could always walk out of the talks. In my opinion, it takes more guts to face an enemy and listen to what he has to say than it does to ignore him, and try to justify why you're ignoring him. Direct talks could also help us find out info which would be useful to us if a confrontation did arise between Iran and the West.
We could also do what the Iranians do- we could export some terror back to them, and find a way to pin it on Ahmidenijad. This could lead to Ahmidenijad's ouster- and the installation of a regime that is either pro-western, or at the least a regime that would be far more moderate and willing to do business with us.
This is just my two cents. I just feel that we can end the future Iranian nuclear threat without resorting to war, which would end up being far more costly to us than many people realize.

[Elmer]

Originally Posted by Rush104

I just feel that we can end the future Iranian nuclear threat without resorting to war, which would end up being far more costly to us than many people realize.

I agree, and I hope so. The west needs to continue its strategy to prevent Iran from going hot by all means possible short of war. The ball is really in the court of Tehran. If Tehran wants to incite the world chaos the Ayatollahs seek to bring about its apocolyptic vision... well, we will have to see. WWIII may be thrust on all.

[DADoser]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/57346

Money quote:
"Here is the reality. Iran has an economy the size of Finland's and an annual defense budget of around $4.8 billion. It has not invaded a country since the late 18th century. The United States has a GDP that is 68 times larger and defense expenditures that are 110 times greater. Israel and every Arab country (except Syria and Iraq) are quietly or actively allied against Iran. And yet we are to believe that Tehran is about to overturn the international system and replace it with an Islamo-fascist order? What planet are we on?" - Fareed Zakaria - author of the above article (quote from article).


Where did that "Super Carrier" thread go????

I'm not even saying that Iran isn't "some" kind of threat to "something" or somebody. I just wonder when we (as Americans) can return to honest and authentic threat assessments - based on some facts/history, removed from the political agenda's of the Republicans and/or the Democrats. Authentic assessment vs. rhetorical, fear mongering to further a political agenda. [BOTH sides guilty - depending on the issue/position of political power/ etc.]

Additionally, (based on history) I'm pretty certain Israel can take care of itself when it comes to self-defense. I'm not sure why we think we need to "step in" to defend them. Have we become Israel's Blackwater?......at what cost/benefit?

[I would guess that a "strict constructionist" (Republican?????) reading of the Constitution would not consider this something American blood and treasure should go for. What did those Founding Fathers know anyway???? Just looking for some politically/ideological consistency in today's "no man's land" of American politics.]

[Captain Eddie]

Originally Posted by DADoser

http://www.newsweek.com/id/57346

Money quote:
"Here is the reality. Iran has an economy the size of Finland's and an annual defense budget of around $4.8 billion. It has not invaded a country since the late 18th century. The United States has a GDP that is 68 times larger and defense expenditures that are 110 times greater. Israel and every Arab country (except Syria and Iraq) are quietly or actively allied against Iran. And yet we are to believe that Tehran is about to overturn the international system and replace it with an Islamo-fascist order? What planet are we on?" - Fareed Zakaria - author of the above article (quote from article).

DA, I've been pondering the above quote for a few minutes. It DOES make sense....BUT....I'm not sure these characters in Iran will play by the rules. If they had "the bomb," they could use it to threaten the rest of the world, if not actually use it even if it meant their obliteration. Seeing the way so many are willing to give up their lives in suicide attacks, I would not want to count out that possibility. If worse came to worse, I know where I'm going if I die, but I'd be quite OK dying by natural causes.

[DADoser]

Originally Posted by Captain Eddie

DA, I've been pondering the above quote for a few minutes. It DOES make sense....BUT....I'm not sure these characters in Iran will play by the rules. If they had "the bomb," they could use it to threaten the rest of the world, if not actually use it even if it meant their obliteration. Seeing the way so many are willing to give up their lives in suicide attacks, I would not want to count out that possibility. If worse came to worse, I know where I'm going if I die, but I'd be quite OK dying by natural causes.

Read the linked article in full and see what you think. Zakaria seems to be pretty well informed and knows his stuff on the middle-east. I don't see him engaged in political punditry. Article makes the correct point that when "idiot" (Iranian president who's name I can't spell or pronounce) came to power - Republican's dismissed him as a "figurehead" and made the point that the real power in Iran is elsewhere.....NOW, he is the "big, bad wolf; with his figure on the button - (the button that they don't yet have.)

Just things to think about/consider when we start hearing this WWIII rhetoric.

I'd just go back to my early, first post in this thread......"Speak softly and carry a big stick." - not the current politicalized rhetoric we are getting from a president with 30% approval rating (we still are a democracy - government by the people, for the people.)

Take care,

[Elmer]

Originally Posted by DADoser

http://www.newsweek.com/id/57346

Money quote:
"Here is the reality. Iran has an economy the size of Finland's and an annual defense budget of around $4.8 billion. It has not invaded a country since the late 18th century. The United States has a GDP that is 68 times larger and defense expenditures that are 110 times greater. Israel and every Arab country (except Syria and Iraq) are quietly or actively allied against Iran. And yet we are to believe that Tehran is about to overturn the international system and replace it with an Islamo-fascist order? What planet are we on?" - Fareed Zakaria - author of the above article (quote from article).


Where did that "Super Carrier" thread go????

I'm not even saying that Iran isn't "some" kind of threat to "something" or somebody. I just wonder when we (as Americans) can return to honest and authentic threat assessments - based on some facts/history, removed from the political agenda's of the Republicans and/or the Democrats. Authentic assessment vs. rhetorical, fear mongering to further a political agenda. [BOTH sides guilty - depending on the issue/position of political power/ etc.]

Additionally, (based on history) I'm pretty certain Israel can take care of itself when it comes to self-defense. I'm not sure why we think we need to "step in" to defend them. Have we become Israel's Blackwater?......at what cost/benefit?

[I would guess that a "strict constructionist" (Republican?????) reading of the Constitution would not consider this something American blood and treasure should go for. What did those Founding Fathers know anyway???? Just looking for some politically/ideological consistency in today's "no man's land" of American politics.]

An interesting article, thanks for posting it DADoser; and the author does make some valid points. Of course, he forgets to mention that Iran invaded sovereign U.S. territory (i.e. the U.S. embassy) in 1979, captured U.S. citizens, and held them hostage for (how long was it anyway... a long time). In any other time or place, this would have been an act of war; the U.S. administration showed remarkable, and frustrating restraint. Some may say this emboldened Iran so much we are paying the price today. He also does not mention that Iranian leaders issue fatwas against foreign citizens, forcing them into hiding; also an act of war in any other time or place. I also wonder if the 4.8 billion for defense includes funding for Hezbollah? Probably not. That 4.8 billion might rise dramatically if it were figured in. But then, if it was, Iran wouldn't be able to surreptiously fund armed groups that commit acts of war in other parts of the world.

[DADoser]

Originally Posted by Elmer

An interesting article, thanks for posting it DADoser; and the author does make some valid points. Of course, he forgets to mention that Iran invaded sovereign U.S. territory (i.e. the U.S. embassy) in 1979, captured U.S. citizens, and held them hostage for (how long was it anyway... a long time). In any other time or place, this would have been an act of war; the U.S. administration showed remarkable, and frustrating restraint. Some may say this emboldened Iran so much we are paying the price today. He also does not mention that Iranian leaders issue fatwas against foreign citizens, forcing them into hiding; also an act of war in any other time or place. I also wonder if the 4.8 billion for defense includes funding for Hezbollah? Probably not. That 4.8 billion might rise dramatically if it were figured in. But then, if it was, Iran wouldn't be able to surreptiously fund armed groups that commit acts of war in other parts of the world.

Nor does Zakaria mention (in that article) the United States/CIA involvement in installing the Shah of Iran and overthrowing a democratically elected Iranian government in 1953. I'm NOT trying to defend the current Iranian president or the Revolutionary guard here - I'm just saying we (America) need to honestly acknowledge our history and our actions. While we may dismiss this action as "ancient" history, I think the Iranians do remember that and view it as the U.S. interferring in their (recent) self-determination. An example of the U.S. acting in opposition to our ideals when in our best national interest. [Something ALL nations do, for whatever reason - we tend to have difficulty remembering and/or acknowledging.] American hypocracy??????

When president Bush makes rhetorical statements about "freedom being God's gift to the world" as well as "invading Iraq so the Iraqis can be free and democratic.....The Iranians can point to our history - 1953 and our support for Saddam Hussein in the Iran/Iraq war (1980's) and fairly label America as being hypocritical - whether we like it or not, they have an issue. NOT in ANY way a defense of terrorism or terrorist acts!

So.....where are we now with Iran and them getting the nuclear bomb? In a very difficult, complex position. I just don't think threatening to bomb them and bringing up WW3 imagery is the best solution or way to "protect" America.


I can't remember where I read this, but.....
A reporter asked a Saudi army officer (one of our allies) after the first Gulf war what he learned from that conflict. His reply was (paraphrased) - "if America is your enemy, then you better be nuclear capable."

I'm afraid that - since WWII - we (the U.S.) have set the table in such a way, for second and 3rd world nations - the only way they see to be respected on the world stage, is to acquire nuclear capability. That is not necessarily a judgement, but I think that's where we are as a nation and planet. I don't know what the solution really is - but I know it isn't to have a dualistic, Black/White, Good/Evil, interventionist, nation-building strategy regarding American foreign policy. (Do I sound like Ron Paul? ) I think that approach is too simplistic in a complex world of our own creation. We have to look more fully at cause and effect of our (nation's) actions as well as look at the big picture and long range into the future. We need political leadership that looks beyond the next election and beyond partisan party politics.

It would be nice if simple force alone could eliminate terrorism, but I think history proves that one cannot defeat a belief/idea with a war of attrition alone. You can kill everyone with that idea - but also you have to prevent anyone else (current or future generation) from latching onto that belief/idea as well. That second part takes more than force.

Rant over.................
[I've been trying not to get too involved in this thread. A couple weeks ago I had an epiphamy regarding my 15 year old daughter; began putting the pieces together; and last thurday she was diagnosed with High Functioning Autism - Asperger's Syndrome. My family has struggled with this for the past 12 years without understanding or the needed patience. At least now we know what we are dealing with and where to go - to a degree - from here. Thanks for reading this last little bit regarding me personally. I know this is a good community of caring individuals - regardless of our different political/historical perspectives. If you pray, send one up for My daughter and our family as we begin to learn how her mind works and make the best adjustments for her future. Thank you. Doug]

[smartd]

Originally Posted by DADoser

.
Rant over.................
[I've been trying not to get too involved in this thread. A couple weeks ago I had an epiphamy regarding my 15 year old daughter; began putting the pieces together; and last thurday she was diagnosed with High Functioning Autism - Asperger's Syndrome. My family has struggled with this for the past 12 years without understanding or the needed patience. At least now we know what we are dealing with and where to go - to a degree - from here. Thanks for reading this last little bit regarding me personally. I know this is a good community of caring individuals - regardless of our different political/historical perspectives. If you pray, send one up for My daughter and our family as we begin to learn how her mind works and make the best adjustments for her future. Thank you. Doug]

I feel for you Doug, we have an autisic boy in our extended family. It is not easy. Hopefully being high functioning your daughter will progress and reach full potential and a full happy life. Hang in there.

[Captain Eddie]

Sorry to hear about you daughter, Doug. You can count on my prayers for all of you (though you probably knew that!)

[Rush104]

I, too, am sorry to hear about your daughter. It sounds like the epiphany is a blessing, allowing you to gain a different perspective concerning her needs. I, too, will be praying for you and your family.