[Celtic]

The HM forum is really hopping...more fun than a barrel full of monkeys, as they say. But, what's happened to everyone else? Corgi is taking a (assumed) working sabbatical until July; Gemini Aces has apparently crashed behind enemy lines and is working its way back (apparently with the help of the underground) to active duty; Witty is drifting in the doldrums with slowing releases and a few repaints; and, did I hear that Dragon is draggin, and may take flight? Only Franklin Mint (1:48) and Century Wings seem to be keeping a respectable pace of releases.

For me, the slowing releases of diecast 1:72 isn't all bad, because I can switch over to a few 1:400 types or work on my waterline collection. However, are there problems in diecastland that may lead to a permanent shift: for example, are we going to see the departure of Corgi and or Dragon, or even Witty (doubtful), with the new companies such as HM and CW taking over the market? Only time will tell, but is it possible we may now have a new, permanent diecast leader, Hobby Master?

I'm rooting for both Corgi and Gemini Aces; but, come on guys, give your fans some encouragement, a few words, a little press release, anything...

[djjeffhall]

Celtic,
While the manufacturers are in limbo, there isn't a lot to say. Most folks have filled their collections so, no new models means no new discoveries and nothing to talk about.

With Corgi, folks are still waiting on the Free Halifax deal, finishing the elusive 2007 catalog and hoping one day to see 2008 come to light. Maybe when the pre-pros come out folks will have things to say?

[Celtic]

Originally Posted by djjeffhall

Celtic,
While the manufacturers are in limbo, there isn't a lot to say. Most folks have filled their collections so, no new models means no new discoveries and nothing to talk about.

With Corgi, folks are still waiting on the Free Halifax deal, finishing the elusive 2007 catalog and hoping one day to see 2008 come to light. Maybe when the pre-pros come out folks will have things to say?

But the question is, do these companies have a future? Or, is HM beating them to submission in the marketplace?

By the way, I'm waiting for the exclusive elusive Hal also, and still have my confirmation letter close at hand. Some day, if the fabled freebie never appears, I may even frame the letter (now coffee and sweat stained) and hang it in the model room...if I can find room!

[Epapazian]

The fact that Corgi and Gemini aren't talking is probably a good sign, though it frays their customer and trade relations a bit. My take, is that both will return to the field of battle and not only that, but they may surprise us with new directions in product selections. On the other hand, I'm not so sure about Carousel and Witty, like FOV, runs the risk of becoming a marginal player unless it stops putting out shoddy products. The departure of Dragon creates some slack, for the surviving marketers to capitalize on and the production slow down at the Chinese factories may wind up being a good thing as it gives the companies time to regroup and make more rational plans for the future.

One thing that strikes me as most important, is how we collectors respond to events. As I noted in another thread, if we go out of our way to support new directions---such as Hobby Master's Kate, we will get more of the same---namely Vals, Oscars, F-105s, Mig-15s, Nicks, Tonys, IL-2s, MC-202s and the like. If, however, we continue to be totally self interested, demanding more and more P-51s, P-38s, F4Us etc until a perfect one, somehow , is made, we are channeling the marketers into needless duplication and redundancy, which is bad for their bottom lines and further gluts the marketplace. I've been taking a long hard look at my own collecting habits and am trying to adjust them along the lines, mentioned above. For example, although I mostly buy 1:72nd scale product, I will now make it a point to purchase any 1:48th or 1:144th scale entries that depart from the norm with the goal of stimulating such initiatives. What I'm much less likely to do is buy yet another P-51D. I've got too many of them already.

[Celtic]

Originally Posted by Epapazian

The fact that Corgi and Gemini aren't talking is probably a good sign...

One thing that strikes me as most important, is how we collectors respond to events...

Thanks for your excellent comments and insights. Agree with everything you said, except I have to stay at 1/72, 1/400, and 1/1200 -- if for no other reason than my pocket book! However, I now find myself getting modern jets, just because there are so many terrific molds out there -- which, of course, is what it is all about. Give the customer a superior product and they'll take the plunge...

Hopefully, Corgi will come out swinging the second half of 2008; Witty can get pretty rough -- their Sea Fury is tops, but the Spits still have the pilot sitting in the back seat!

[kabelace]

Corgi may be quiet now but HM can't be considered called the winner until they start making some heavy hitters aka multi engine bombers. CW has carved out there niche with jet powered navy birds, but they just might price themselves out of the market. Dragon who knows and really does any one care anymore, all they have been doing lately is repaints, and there release dates are even late, no new models. They do make a nice model but the really only have a few. HM is out there swinging hard, but I think Corgi will be back once they get themselves organized from the move and the merger with Master Replicas. Now the so called economic down turn in the US and production problems in China might through a wrench in every one's plans.

[smartd]

Originally Posted by Celtic

.......... For me, the slowing releases of diecast 1:72 isn't all bad, because I can switch over to a few 1:400 types or work on my waterline collection. ...

I've been buying armour of all things. Tanks guys.

[Gort]

I’m pullin’ this one out of my ear (yes, robots have ears), but I’m thinking kabelace is right. The sub-prime crunch and dollar mess (and resultant recession and looming depression—not to mention China’s manufacturing dilemmas) will impact diecast production immeasurably.

I hope I’m wrong, and I admit I’m a pessimist, but the heady days of plentiful new models are dead and gone. We’re looking at spotty production, shrunken inventories and catalogs, and the demise of several cherished manufacturers—or at the very least, their painful reorganization.

Like I said, I’d much rather the old days return; I’m rooting for every single one of our diecast producers and pray for their deliverance. But the tea leaves suggest a different future.

Here’s my take on what we can expect from several diecast companies ...

Corgi: Will reorganize, listen to collectors’ requests and offer exciting models. They’ll also chop production, significantly reduce new issues and hike their prices. The result: a leaner, meaner company focused on collectors’ demands.

Dragon Wings: Possibly die a protracted, painful death. They’ll occasionally issue repaints; but with few (if any) new models on the horizon, collector enthusiasm will evaporate. Unless management gets its act together, Dragon Wings will sputter out.

Dragon Armor: Will continue to dribble AFVs, most of them repaints, some of them variants on current themes (like the Hanomag). DA enjoys a loyal following, but repetitive, bromidic issues of King Tiger and Tiger I tanks (among others) will douse collector fanaticism. If and when purchases dip dangerously below expectations, Dragon might easily drop their 1/72 line for their profitable (and wildly popular) 1/35 tanks.

Cyber-Hobby: Few issues appeared last year, and those that did arrived sans CH’s trademark tin box, disappointing many a collector and raising the specter that Cyber-Hobby is plunging into an irreversible coma. This year, CH’s last issue (a Panther) flat-lined, and no wonder: it’s a duplicate of a previously-released Dragon Armor Panther (sans the pad-painted turret number), issued in the same cardboard sleeve and plastic display box. Given this catatonic effort, I’d say Cyber-Hobby is staggering toward the precipice.

Witty: Is at a crossroads: Either they mimic savvy manufacturers like Hobby Master, produce new and appealing models, drop production numbers and raise prices, or they bite the proverbial weeny. So far, nothing suggests they’ve ditched their moldy market strategy. Hello, graveyard!

Forces of Valor: One year ago, FOV offered ten new issues: most were repaints; many came with additional military figures. This year, three new models will hit the shelves, two of them completely new. So, if my arithmetic is right, that’s—let’s see—seven fewer issues than last year, definitely not a favorable sign. Since FOV commands a tidy share of the mass military diecast market (via Toys R Us, Target, etc.) I’d say they’ll survive, but more belt cinching is inevitable based on vacillating demand and rising production costs.

Hobby Master: Will survive. Period. Given their superlative management team, their extraordinary attention to collector requests, and their relentless pursuit toward product excellence, there’s little doubt this company will not only survive—but thrive. Unless, of course, the tumbling dollar crushes all of that.

Gaincorp: I haven’t a clue. I thought Gaincorp had plunged off a cliff; but after receiving news of their new Su-27UBK Flanker, I’m stunned. Happy, of course, but stunned. I’m still shaking my metal head.

Century Wings: In the bag. Myriad USN Navy freaks cruise diecast’s frigid waters and are chafing to purchase exceptional Navy can’t-be-found-elsewhere jets. CW’s prices are high, but they’ve hit the motherloade. So as long as they maintain uncompromising, excellent product—even if they raise prices ten to twenty dollars per unit—they’ll stay fat, sassy and happy. Unless the tumbling dollar crushes—ah, screw it.

None of this is gospel, of course. Few understand world herky-jerky economics; fewer still can accurately forecast its future. All I can say is, keep what you’ve got, ‘cause the day will come when diecast models are scarce. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but definitely somewhere down this treacherous, murky path.

And, hey! It’s good to be back!!!

[Captain Eddie]

Welcome back, Gort!

[leeG]

Based on my pre-orders so far this year, HobbyMaster and Corgi are about tied. Base on models actually delivered, Corgi isn't even in the running.