[Folgore]

Disclaimer: Everything below is IMHO. Thankyou.

There's a proven market for diecast airplanes, and I don't think manufacturers / distributors will abandon that market entirely -- after all, there's money to be made. It's not hard to predict that there will be a shake-up in the industry -- it seems clear the shake-up has already begun -- but that's not unusual. Capitalism is creative destruction, right? The real change, I think, will be in how diecast airplane models are marketed. Up until now, they have largely been produced and mass-marketed as "toys." Upscale toys, but still. (Consider, for example, Corgi and Dragon.) Some of the newer diecast companies are starting to shift away from that paradigm, marketing finer models to a niche market: collectors like us. (Consider Gemini Aces and above all Century Wings. I'm not sure about Hobby Master. Still developing their strategy, maybe?)

The upshot: As manufacturing (definitely) and distribution (maybe) costs rise, so will the price of the li'l airplanes we know and love. As rising costs shrink the market, the models will be aimed at a niche, rather than mass, market. Production runs will shrink, further increasing the price-per-unit. Eventually a new stable price-point will be established (where the supply and demand lines meet on Ye Olde Supply-and-Demand Graph from Econ 101). We'll end up paying more for our models, and there may be fewer companies to choose from. On the other hand, as companies compete for our diecast dollars, and as manufacturing processes continue to improve, we'll see better models (more detailed, more options, etc.). That's been the trend, and I think this paradigm shift (away from diecast airplanes as toys and toward diecast airplanes as collectibles) will only encourage that trend to continue.

As a secondary shift, the trend toward vertical integration of diecast manufacturers / distributors (a la Hobby Master) will continue too.

The real question is: What will the new price point be? Century Wings and Carousel 1 airplanes go for about $60-$70, right? So will that be the new price point, or will it climb more? What's the upper limit? Sure, we'd buy fewer models at $75 a pop (for example), but if that price is enough to generate a profit at the numbers sold, that'd be the new price-point.

The toy industry as a whole will be affected by all the factors Gort enumerates (albeit to a somewhat lesser extent for toys produced in greater numbers -- economies of scale, doncha know). It'll be interesting to see what the toy section at the local Target looks like in five years. My guess: Slightly to somewhat higher prices and the end of the Made in China monopoly.

That's my two cents.