Let me tap your brains.
I think the diecast industry will collapse. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but somewhere down the road.
Consider this ...
• Chinese diecast exports are faltering or are non-existent.
• Manufacturers (like Corgi and Dragon) are: 1) using less or no metal in their models; 2) employing more or all plastic in their models; 3) raising prices (in some cases dramatically); 4) canceling projected models; and/or 5) postponing deliveries.
• This could be due, in part, to: 1) distribution dilemmas; 2) Chinese crackdown on smoke-stack emissions (forcing factory closures); 3) shrunken profitability; 4) governmental angst over growing rice shortages and consequent peasant revolt, which could traumatize marginal industries like diecast; 5) rising zinc prices; 6) rising Chinese labor costs; 7) a weakened US Dollar that severely compromises consumer purchasing power; and/or 8) spiraling oil and gas prices, which force consumers to focalize on basic goods—not hobbies.
• The possibility that UPS, FedEx etc., will eventually raise shipping rates, forcing collectors to either abbreviate their purchases or abandon them altogether.
It’s a bleak scenario, I agree, but I believe this is the beginning of the end. I don’t want to see this happen anymore than you do; but if things get much worse, the Chinese diecast market could crash. Might be very close to that as we speak.
So I’m wondering, is my prognostication way off? Will the diecast industry survive, albeit a little thinner and a lot more expensive; or will world circumstances spin out of control and ruin the diecast market?
What’s your take?