I’m pullin’ this one out of my ear (yes, robots have ears), but I’m thinking kabelace is right. The sub-prime crunch and dollar mess (and resultant recession and looming depression—not to mention China’s manufacturing dilemmas) will impact diecast production immeasurably.
I hope I’m wrong, and I admit I’m a pessimist, but the heady days of plentiful new models are dead and gone. We’re looking at spotty production, shrunken inventories and catalogs, and the demise of several cherished manufacturers—or at the very least, their painful reorganization.
Like I said, I’d much rather the old days return; I’m rooting for every single one of our diecast producers and pray for their deliverance. But the tea leaves suggest a different future.
Here’s my take on what we can expect from several diecast companies ...
Corgi: Will reorganize, listen to collectors’ requests and offer exciting models. They’ll also chop production, significantly reduce new issues and hike their prices. The result: a leaner, meaner company focused on collectors’ demands.
Dragon Wings: Possibly die a protracted, painful death. They’ll occasionally issue repaints; but with few (if any) new models on the horizon, collector enthusiasm will evaporate. Unless management gets its act together, Dragon Wings will sputter out.
Dragon Armor: Will continue to dribble AFVs, most of them repaints, some of them variants on current themes (like the Hanomag). DA enjoys a loyal following, but repetitive, bromidic issues of King Tiger and Tiger I tanks (among others) will douse collector fanaticism. If and when purchases dip dangerously below expectations, Dragon might easily drop their 1/72 line for their profitable (and wildly popular) 1/35 tanks.
Cyber-Hobby: Few issues appeared last year, and those that did arrived sans CH’s trademark tin box, disappointing many a collector and raising the specter that Cyber-Hobby is plunging into an irreversible coma. This year, CH’s last issue (a Panther) flat-lined, and no wonder: it’s a duplicate of a previously-released Dragon Armor Panther (sans the pad-painted turret number), issued in the same cardboard sleeve and plastic display box. Given this catatonic effort, I’d say Cyber-Hobby is staggering toward the precipice.
Witty: Is at a crossroads: Either they mimic savvy manufacturers like Hobby Master, produce new and appealing models, drop production numbers and raise prices, or they bite the proverbial weeny. So far, nothing suggests they’ve ditched their moldy market strategy. Hello, graveyard!
Forces of Valor: One year ago, FOV offered ten new issues: most were repaints; many came with additional military figures. This year, three new models will hit the shelves, two of them completely new. So, if my arithmetic is right, that’s—let’s see—seven fewer issues than last year, definitely not a favorable sign. Since FOV commands a tidy share of the mass military diecast market (via Toys R Us, Target, etc.) I’d say they’ll survive, but more belt cinching is inevitable based on vacillating demand and rising production costs.
Hobby Master: Will survive. Period. Given their superlative management team, their extraordinary attention to collector requests, and their relentless pursuit toward product excellence, there’s little doubt this company will not only survive—but thrive. Unless, of course, the tumbling dollar crushes all of that.
Gaincorp: I haven’t a clue. I thought Gaincorp had plunged off a cliff; but after receiving news of their new Su-27UBK Flanker, I’m stunned. Happy, of course, but stunned. I’m still shaking my metal head.
Century Wings: In the bag. Myriad USN Navy freaks cruise diecast’s frigid waters and are chafing to purchase exceptional Navy can’t-be-found-elsewhere jets. CW’s prices are high, but they’ve hit the motherloade. So as long as they maintain uncompromising, excellent product—even if they raise prices ten to twenty dollars per unit—they’ll stay fat, sassy and happy. Unless the tumbling dollar crushes—ah, screw it.
None of this is gospel, of course. Few understand world herky-jerky economics; fewer still can accurately forecast its future. All I can say is, keep what you’ve got, ‘cause the day will come when diecast models are scarce. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but definitely somewhere down this treacherous, murky path.
And, hey! It’s good to be back!!!
